Shifting Plates: Psychological and Economic Predictors of Perceived Plant-Based Meat Inflation, Price Premiums, and Consumption Change
Authors
Abstract
Consumers routinely misjudge food inflation, yet little is known about how such misperceptions interact with social-psychological factors to shape demand for plant-based meat (PBM). In a representative survey of 1,016 UK adults, we compared perceived versus actual price changes for PBM and for comparable animal meat over the preceding 12 months. Participants estimated PBM inflation to be 15.4% on average when the inflation rate of beef was provided as an anchor (9%), nearly fourfold greater than actual inflation rate estimates between 2023 and 2024 (Good Food Institute, 2024). Participants reporting greater PBM consumption were also more likely to experience greater concerns around cost when food shopping though did perceive plant-based meat as pricier. Meat attachment but not food neophobia predicted the perception that PBM and plant-based diets broadly are pricier. Income did not predict PBM consumption changes, but lower-income brackets showed a greater reduction in red meat consumption. Higher perceived PBM prices were linked to higher inflation perceptions, yet those who increased PBM consumption perceived its inflation rate as lower. The findings identify high cost and inflation estimates combined with psychological factors such as meat attachment and food neophobia work in tandem to predict meat resistance, reducing the likelihood of plant-based uptake.